Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

821
FXUS63 KJKL 072127
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
527 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms persist across the
  entire area throughout the week.

- The greatest rain chances are on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday,
  and the potential for multiple rounds of locally heavy rainfall
  poses a risk for isolated flooding in this time frame.

- Warm and rather humid conditions are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 525 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026

The weekend comes to a warm, but pleasant, close today. Expect
partly cloudy skies to persist into the evening hours, with diurnal
cumulus clouds observed across the region in this afternon`s
satellite imagery. A stray shower cannot be ruled out in Fleming
County, but these cumulus clouds are not deep enough to yield
widespread measurable precipitation. The better rain chances have
steadily trended further and further to the NE of the CWA, where a
convergence zone is noted near a stalled boundary north of the Ohio
River. Here in Eastern Kentucky, a narrow ridge axis is resolved
directly overhead. The related subsidence and midlevel height point
towards efficient diurnal mixing processes, which allowed the
antecedent AM midlevel cloud deck to scatter out. Temperatures have
accordingly risen to widespread readings in the 80s, and seasonably
mild conditions are expected to continue into the evening hours.

The aforementioned cumulus clouds should subside by sunset,
initially giving way to high clouds streaming off ongoing convective
activity in the Tennessee Valley. As a shortwave disturbance ejects
out of the Mississippi River Valley overnight, atmospheric moisture
looks to spread from SW to NE across the forecast area. As it does
so, the increasingly effective moisture return should yield
thickening midlevel clouds. This will interrupt the overnight
radiational cooling process, and low temperatures are forecast to be
much more mild than they were last night. The sheltered and shaded
hollows of Eastern Kentucky could still decouple and quickly drop
into the 60s after sunset. Given the moist airmass in place this
afternoon (dewpoints are generally in the mid 60s at their diurnal
minimums), patchy fog could develop near area waterways again.
Relative to a regular ridge-valley split night, there is less
confidence in fog formation tonight. This is due to the previously-
mentioned increase in cloud cover starting in the Lake Cumberland
region. In our southwestern locales, this cloud cover could be thick
enough to prohibit fog formation. The clouds will also relegate low
temperatures to the upper 60s/near 70 there, and ridgetops are also
poised to experience these much-above-normal lows tonight.

Rain chances arrive from the west tomorrow morning, then spread
across the entire CWA tomorrow afternoon. The primary sensible
weather impacts in the short term forecast period will stem from
these PoPs. Multiple rounds of slow-moving showers and thunderstorms
are plausible, and there are enough atmospheric ingredients in place
to mention a localized risk of flash flooding. Modeled sounding
profiles demonstrate skinny cape profiles averaging between 500 and
1500 J/kg of CAPE, with weak flow throughout the column. While any
water-loaded downdrafts could yield gusty winds in the strongest
afternoon convection, bulk shear values are very weak. Widespread
severe storms are not anticipated as a result, but storm propagation
is derived from the same atmospheric parameters as wind shear. Given
the weak nature of the shear, there will be little steering current
for these storms. Mean cloud-layer winds in the HREF are less than
10 knots, with upshear wind values between 5 and 10 knots. Slow-
moving and potentially-backbuilding storms are possible in such a
kinematic environment, and this setup`s thermodynamics also point
towards heavy rainfall. Given high freezing levels and low LCLs
tomorrow afternoon, the warm cloud layer is forecast to thicken to
greater than 10,000 ft tomorrow afternoon. This favors efficient
rainfall rates, as do mean precipitable water values between 1.75
(NE KY) and 2.25 (Lake Cumberland area) inches. While we are
entering the conventionally warmer and wetter summer season, these
PWAT values respectively rank between the 95th and 99th values of
climatology. Therefore, there is a risk for slow-moving, potentially-
backbuilding storms to produce torrential rainfall tomorrow
afternoon.

Here in Eastern Kentucky, there are also several limiting factors
in place though. One of these is that we are currently in a
drought. Measurable rainfall has not been observed across the JKL
CWA for a few days, and this has allowed soils to dry out. The
ground should be able to absorb most of the initial round of
rainfall. The second limiting factor is the potential for
southerly to southeasterly surface winds to downslope in SE KY.
This would yield localized drying, and the models tend to
overestimate the amount of available low-level moisture in these
portions of the forecast area. Storm total QPF is at a relative
minimum in a triangular-shaped area that stretches from Magoffin
to Leslie and then Pike Counties. These southeastern counties are
still in D2 (Severe) Drought, and thus they have the most
resilient antecedent soil conditions. The final limiting factor in
this setup is that the parent shortwave disturbances aloft appear
to be rather progressive. There could be a lull in the
precipitation tomorrow night, which will provide a much-welcome
break from the stronger and more persistent rainfall expected
during the afternoon and early-evening hours tomorrow. In short,
widespread hydrological issues are not expected during the short-
term forecast period.

The greatest risk of flash flooding tomorrow looks to stay to the
west of the I-75 corridor and to the south of the Tennessee state
line. Localized impacts cannot be ruled out in our forecast area if
any particular area gets hit by multiple rounds of relatively
stronger and/or training convection. We collaborated with
neighboring WFOs and WPC to keep most of our forecast area in a
Marginal (Level 1/4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook. We also decided to
hold off on a Flood Watch for now, but interests are encouraged to
have multiple ways to receive warnings tomorrow should issues arise.
A Slight Risk ERO remains in place for our southwestern counties
tomorrow, as these areas are the most likely to experience multiple
rounds of activity. They will see the earliest onset of
precipitation tomorrow morning and then again overnight into
Tuesday, when this active pattern will remain in place. Tomorrow`s
realized rainfall totals will play a large role in determining the
potential for additional hydrological impacts on Tuesday, so we will
be closely monitoring trends in area observations and high-
resolution forecast guidance over the next 24 hours.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 430 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026

The period is expected to begin with an upper level ridge centered
in the vicinity of the Carolinas and extending into the mid Atlantic
States to Quebec and another upper ridge centered in the Arklatex
region. In between, a slow moving trough should initially extend
from the Great Lakes to Lower OH Valley and TN Valley. Further west,
an upper level trough should be moving across the western Conus as
the period begins. At the surface, a frontal zone is expected to
extend from near the NC/SC border into the SOuthern Appalachians to
eastern Ky to western Great Lakes at that point. Deep moisture will
be in place near and head of the shortwave trough with 00Z LREF mean
progged in the 1.6 to 1.9 inch range or 94th to 99th percentile.

Tuesday to Tuesday night, the axis of upper level ridging is progged
to shift off the eastern seaboard while the 500 mb trough axis
should gradually shift into the Appalachians and potential east of
eastern KY late. Some of the guidance, mainly GFS, has another
shortwave/MCS type feature potentially nearing the area late Tuesday
night. The sfc boundary is expected to move little and perhaps
linger across the eastern portion of the area and weaken. PW should
remain in the 97th percentile or higher for this time of year during
this timeframe as well. Storm motions should be rather slow, roughly
10 to 15 mph at the most and any additional rounds Tuesday into
Tuesday evening or Tuesday night on top of locations that could
receive heavier rain Monday to Monday night would have a risk of
localized flooding. WPC maintains a marginal risk for Excessive
Rainfall for Day 3, Tuesday to Tuesday night.

Wednesday to Thursday night, the upper trough axis should gradually
shift further to east of eastern KY and the Appalachians with at
least a period of brief height rises/shortwave shifting across the
Commonwealth later Wednesday to Wednesday night. Also during this
period, the upper level trough that will have began the period in
the western Conus will have migrated into the Plains/Central Conus
with a lead shortwave progged to reach the Great Lakes to mid MS
Valley. Although total moisture in the column will decrease somewhat
as ridge axis shifts across the area, with PW per the 00Z LREF
dropping back to the 90th to 95th percentile or the 1.5 to 1.7 inch
range. However, it will still be rather humid, with sfc dewpoints
are progged in the upper 60s to lower 70s range. Chances for
convection during these days should be highest on Wednesday with the
500 mb trough shifting east and the additional potential
MCS/convectively driven shortwave possibly tracking across eastern
KY as well. The degrees of height rises and loss of daytime heating
and decreasing instability will determine the extent of coverage of
any convection from late Wednesday evening through early Thursday
and that period should be a relative lull in activity. Pending the
ultimate degree of ridging and capping, isolated to scattered
showers and storms are probable particularly during peak heating on
Thursday and there could be another uptick Thursday night pending the
timing of the approaching shortwave and associated frontal zone.

Friday to Sunday, guidance has the shortwave trough crossing the
Central and Eastern Great Lakes and OH Valley including eastern KY
from Friday to Friday evening. There is quite a bit of spread in 500
mb heights over the upcoming weekend with ridging generally centered
in the Southern Plains to start the weekend gradually becoming
centered in the Rio Grande Valley to Mexico area. Further and north
an upper low is expected to meander across central portions of
Canada with a broad trough to its south and southwest. This would
result in generally west to southwest flow across the commonwealth.
The frontal zone may sag into eastern KY as the shortwave passes
Friday to Friday night and then become diffuse. Another frontal zone
may drop across the western and Central Great Lakes to mid MS Valley
and sections of the Plains to end the weekend. Mild and quite humid
weather should persist across the region with chances for convection
generally peaking each afternoon and evening. The greatest chances
for convection to end the week and over the weekend are forecast
with the shortwave trough Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026

VFR conditions prevail for the majority of the TAF period, but
conditions deteriorate from west-southwest to east-northeast tomorrow
morning. Current satellite imagery reveals a cumulus field
developing across the region, with the AM midlevel clouds
beginning to mix out. The diurnally-driven cu should subside
after sunset, and these clouds are pretty shallow. So, mentionable
precipitation chances stay away from the TAF sites this
afternoon. A few showers cannot be ruled out closer to the Ohio
River though, and more widespread precipitation is ongoing to the
south in the Tennessee River Valley. The system responsible for
this southern activity is progged to approach the forecast area
by tomorrow morning, with shower/storm chances increasing at
southwestern terminals after 12z and then western terminals
by the very end of the TAF period. This convection is poised to
reduce ceilings and vsbys to MVFR conditions, but reductions have
generally been handled with PROB30 groups for the 18z TAF period.
Expect light and variable winds to persist as well.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MARCUS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MARCUS