Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for Somerset KY
National Weather Service Forecast for:
Somerset KY
Issued by: National Weather Service Jackson, KY |
Updated: 7:47 pm EDT Jul 12, 2025 |
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Tonight
 Chance T-storms then Slight Chance T-storms
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Sunday
 Chance Showers and Patchy Fog then Chance T-storms
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Sunday Night
 Chance T-storms
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Monday
 Chance T-storms
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Monday Night
 Chance T-storms then Partly Cloudy
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Tuesday
 Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance T-storms
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Tuesday Night
 Slight Chance T-storms
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Wednesday
 Slight Chance T-storms then Showers Likely
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Wednesday Night
 Showers Likely then Chance T-storms
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Lo 70 °F |
Hi 89 °F |
Lo 70 °F |
Hi 89 °F |
Lo 71 °F |
Hi 92 °F |
Lo 72 °F |
Hi 93 °F |
Lo 72 °F |
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Hazardous Weather Outlook
Tonight
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight, then a slight chance of thunderstorms after 4am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. South southwest wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
Sunday
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 4pm. Patchy fog between 7am and 8am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 89. Heat index values as high as 97. West southwest wind 6 to 8 mph. |
Sunday Night
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. West wind 3 to 6 mph. |
Monday
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A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Heat index values as high as 97. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
Monday Night
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. Calm wind. |
Tuesday
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 92. |
Tuesday Night
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. |
Wednesday
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A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8am and 2pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Partly sunny and hot, with a high near 93. Chance of precipitation is 60%. |
Wednesday Night
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Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 8pm and 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. Chance of precipitation is 60%. |
Thursday
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 91. Chance of precipitation is 70%. |
Thursday Night
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Showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. Chance of precipitation is 60%. |
Friday
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Showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly sunny and hot, with a high near 90. Chance of precipitation is 70%. |
Friday Night
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Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Chance of precipitation is 60%. |
Saturday
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A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for Somerset KY.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
688
FXUS63 KJKL 121959
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
359 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High temperatures will range from near to slightly above normal
through next week.
- Chances for showers and storms persist through the weekend and
into next week, mainly during each afternoon and evening hours.
These chances peak Sunday and again late next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 230 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025
Current surface analysis across the CONUS is quite active, with a
surface perturbation moving across its northern half. The main
synoptic feature is a surface low tracking across the Great Lakes
region. Currently, its positioned over Michigan`s Upper
Peninsula. The warm front extends west to east from the lows
center, across Canada, and into New England. The corresponding
cold front stretches southwestward from the lows center, reaching
down to the southern Central Plains. Locally, eastern Kentucky is
firmly within the warm sector regime, behind the warm front but
ahead of the approaching cold front. This setup will lead to
warmer temperatures as southwesterly flow advects warmer
temperatures and higher dew points into the region. This is
already reflected in current temperatures, which have climbed into
the mid to upper 80s.
Through the remainder of the day, temperatures will continue to
climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s. However, throughout the
afternoon, there will be increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Some of these have already started to develop but are
short-lived. The SPC has issued a Marginal Risk for severe
thunderstorms today, as this afternoons convection could bring an
isolated threat of a stronger storm. Any storms that do develop
could bring strong, gusty winds and heavy rainfall. However, since
shear values are nonexistent to negligible, widespread severe storms
are not expected. Showers and storms will dissipate toward the
overnight hours, leading to a mostly dry night with areas of fog and
overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Sunday will bring another day of highs in the mid to upper 80s, with
increasing threats for convection as the front finally moves into
the region. As with Saturday, strong storms are possible, but shear
continues to be lacking; therefore, significant severe weather is
not anticipated. Models indicate the front will stall out across the
area from northeast to southwest. As this occurs, PoP chances will
continue from Sunday afternoon through the overnight into Monday.
Sunday night will closely mirror Saturday night, with lows in the
upper 60s to low 70s.
Overall, the period will be highlighted by rounds of showers and
storms, some of which could be severe. Highs will climb into the
upper 80s to lower 90s, with overnight lows falling into the upper
60s to lower 70s, along with areas of fog.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 358 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025
The long term forecast period features a typical summertime weather
pattern in Eastern Kentucky. The forecast guidance suite remains in
generally good agreement on the overarching synoptic features within
this time frame. Thus, confidence is fairly high that Eastern
Kentucky will experience seasonably warm/humid conditions and daily
diurnal peaks in shower/storm chances throughout the next work week.
The period opens on Monday with the northeastward ejection of the
trough responsible for this past weekend`s active weather. As the
upper level pattern deamplifies in its wake, the surface "cool
front" associated with it is poised to stall out over the forecast
area. The lack of upper level dynamic support will reduce the risk
for organized severe weather, but daytime heating and convergence
along this boundary should yield scattered afternoon thunderstorms.
The storms that develop will pose a risk for locally heavy rainfall,
lightning, and perhaps some gusty winds. Winds on Monday will have a
more northwesterly component to them on the cooler side of the
boundary. This favors relatively cooler highs in the upper 80s
across northern portions of the forecast area, whereas southern
portions will likely be closer to 90. The warmer temperatures in the
south favor slightly higher PoPs south of the Mountain Parkway on
Monday afternoon and evening, but rising heights overnight should
suppress convection after sunset. Expect overnight lows near 70, with
slightly cooler valleys and slightly warmer ridgetops. Valley fog
appears most likely in the river valleys, but wet grounds could
allow fog to form elsewhere.
Ridging builds into the area on Tuesday and Wednesday, with
afternoon highs warming into the lower 90s on both days in response
to rising heights and a return to southerly surface flow. While
isolated afternoon showers and storms cannot be ruled out on
Tuesday, Tuesday generally looks drier than Wednesday. A series of
shortwave disturbances will move through the Greater Ohio River
Valley on Wednesday and Thursday, and rain chances increase on these
days accordingly. The highest PoPs will remain in the
afternoon/evening hours as temps warm into the upper 80s/lower 90s,
but some residual cloud coverage could linger into the overnight
hours. This reduces confidence in the magnitude of overnight ridge-
valley splits and valley fog formation deeper into the forecast
period. For now, fog grids were limited to only the deepest river
valleys and only minor adjustments were made to the MinT grids.
Overall, expect warm temperatures and scattered showers and storms
chances each day in the long term forecast period. Said showers and
storms may provide some localized relief from the heat each
afternoon, but the cumulative nature of highs near 90 and lows near
70 over four-plus days will lead to increasing Heat Risk across
Eastern Kentucky. Thus, interests with outdoor plans next week
should plan ahead for potential impacts from both thunderstorms and
heat. Readers are encouraged to have multiple ways to receive
warnings for convection and to take breaks inside if working
outdoors for prolonged periods of time. As always, when thunder
roars, go indoors.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025
VFR conditions are largely prevailing across all TAF sites this
issuance; however scattered showers and thunderstorms have
developed, all of which could bring a decrease in category to
terminals. Once showers and storms dissipate, terminals will all
return to VFR through the overnight. With moisture from Saturday`s
rainfall, areas of fog could develop and create lowered categories
at all sites from roughly 08Z through 12Z. A renewed threat for
showers and storms will develop after 12Z and persist through the
rest of the period. Lastly, winds will be light and variable
outside of any convection.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...VORST
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