Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

484
FXUS63 KJKL 282157
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
557 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much lower probabilities for showers and storms will be in place
  during most of the upcoming work week.

- Heat and humidity will quickly become oppressive during the new
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 408 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026

The afternoon surface analysis shows a stationary boundary to the
north across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley. This feature will
waver around the Ohio Valley through the short term period, as it
retrogrades back into Kentucky tonight. That said, the NBM does
add in some showers later tonight along this feature and some of
the CAMs show this potential as well. Given this did keep at least
some showers in the forecast for potions of the area tonight. The
question is can we see much given the rising heights from the
strong 500mb high pressing into the Ohio Valley. Given this kept
PoPs in the 20-30 percent range. The next hazard of concern
tonight will be clearing skies for some areas and either low
stratus and/or fog potential. The forecast soundings for portions
of the area including the HREF forecast soundings show an
inversion setting later this evening into the night. Given this
think there is a decent shot of seeing patchy to even areas of
dense fog especially after midnight.

Model guidance remains in good agreement for building heights
through the period, as 500mb high and surface high push east into
the region. This will set the stage for warming temperatures into
the lower 90s for many locations on Monday afternoon. The
combination of warming temperatures and humidity values will lead
to heat indices near or greater that 100 degrees. Given the
potential for some spots getting closer to 105 in the western
parts of the CWA opted to hoist a Heat Advisory in collaboration
with surrounding offices. This will also be good messaging for
those affected by the flooding over the past several days. This
will also have to be looked at closer on other shifts for
potentially needing additional heat products through much of the
holiday week. The one potential breakdown to this will be that
boundary and if any convection develops along it. Then once again
Monday night mostly clear skies and inversion setting in will
lead to another night and morning of at least patchy dense fog.
Lows will drop into the lower 70s in most cases, with perhaps a
few upper 60s in the valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 557 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026

Hot and muggy conditions look to be a main stay for Eastern Kentucky
through the extended. Models continue to show, and are in good
agreement over a ridge of high pressure located over Southern
potions of the Ohio as well as Tennessee Valleys. The ridge axis,
continues further north into the Upper Great Lakes and Southern
Ontario, by Tuesday morning. Additionally, an upper level trough is
located over the Great Basin in Western CONUS, with an upper level
disturbance further north over the High Plains.

With high pressure hovering overhead through next week, afternoon
temperatures climb into the low to mid 90s, under mostly sunny
skies, light and variable winds, and dew points in the lower 70s. In
the evenings, temperatures cool into the low to mid 70s. These hot
and muggy conditions are poised to last several days, peaking between
July 1 and July 3rd. Many areas west of the Big Sandy River Basin
have a 80-90% probability of seeing Heat Indices of at least 100F.
Any members of the general public without access to shelter or
hydration, especially these three days, are most susceptible to heat
related illnesses.

While chances are low each day, with abundant moisture in the
atmosphere, isolated to scattered diurnally driven storms remain
possible each afternoon and early evening. At this time, most
locations should remain dry.

Thursday evening into Friday, an upper level disturbance ejects out
of the Northern Rockies into the High Plains. By Friday afternoon
this disturbance approaches the Upper Great Lakes and begins
flattening the ridge of high pressure over the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. This may lead to more scattered shower and storm chances
heading into the 4th and 5th of July. Models are still resolving the
overall pattern and underlying details leading to lower confidence
towards next weekends forecast.

Additionally, while unlikely, skies may become hazy at times over
the next week in part due to several wildfires over the Four
Corners region (Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado). This
would have the littlest bit of impact if realized, and at most
may shave a degree or two off of the high temperatures.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026

We are seeing a mix of MVFR and VFR this afternoon to begin the
TAF period. The storm activity from earlier has progressed
southeast into Tennessee this afternoon. While most sites will
improve through the afternoon, we could still see MVFR Cigs mix in
at times with the passing lower cumulus. There have also been a
few weak rain showers passing through parts of the area this
afternoon, but left these out of the TAFs as little if any
restrictions would be expected. The combination of rainfall and
clearing skies will set the stage for fog and low stratus tonight
into Monday morning. This will lead to sites going below minimums
especially between 08z-12Z timeframe. The winds will be light and
variable through the period at less than 10 knots.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for KYZ044-050-051-
058-059-068-069-079-080-083>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...DJ